Hi friends, my name is Rahul Jain. I’m a SEBI registered research analyst, and due to the conflict in West Asia, a lot of correction has happened. Look at the Indian stock market; look at the US stock market—that also has shown some correction. Now look at gold and silver. Across the asset classes, there is a good level of correction.
Now the question is, can we take advantage of this correction? Absolutely. In my view, absolutely. In fact, there are a few assets which, in my view, are now at the bottom. A reversal is likely to happen very, very soon. I’m recording this video on the 1st of April around 8:30 a.m. when the market has not even opened, but my gut sense is that we are almost at the bottom, if not at the bottom.
But I’m going to present to you a lot of data. More importantly, let us say a hypothetical investment style of, let’s say, 10 lakh rupees. Where would I go and deploy this 10 lakh rupees in these uncertain times? What are my risks? What are my reward ratios? Everything I’m going to present to you with data—a lot of data. If you’re new to my channel, please hit the subscribe button because you’re going to learn a lot.
With that context, let’s start with this hypothetical scenario of if I were to deploy 10 lakh rupees right now in the markets, how would I navigate through it? How would I look at risk versus rewards? How would I look at various assets and say that, you know what, this makes a lot of sense? Again, this is not a recommendation here, but I’ll give you a broad framework and some deep-dive data points so that you get good clarity about how these markets are panning out.
Devising the Indian Stock Market Allocation
So, the first asset I would look to invest let’s say around 55 to 60% of this 10 lakh rupees will be the Indian stock market. Why am I saying that, and what are the risks I am taking if I were to deploy, let’s say, 55 to 60% of my money into the Indian stock market? See, first of all, let’s look at the valuations. If I talk about the data here, for example, if I show you the Nifty 50 PE ratio at the end of March, it is around 19.6. Now, have a look at the historical data from the last 5 years. Okay, if you see the pink line, this is the Nifty 50 PE ratio. And what you note is the lowest it has gone to is around 18.92. So, we are very, very close to bottoming it out, right? If you look at the last 5 years’ average, right now we are at around 19.6, as I showed you.
But more importantly, I’ll show you another ratio because we have to look at it from a multiple valuation parameters perspective. So, what you need to look at is this chart here. What do you see? It is the Sensex-to-gold ratio. And if you go back to almost the last, let’s say, 26 years—going back to 1999 to 2026 here—what you note is that whenever the Sensex-to-gold ratio has dropped to around 0.18, that is an extremely, extremely heavy support. Okay, in terms of valuations, go back to 2003, go back to 2009, go back to 2012, and fast forward to 2026. What you notice is that we are at 0.18. This is an extremely important parameter that has sustained over the last 26 years from a valuations perspective. And what is the top? Around 0.45, except for one point when the market sold after the financial collapse. You can see that this ratio jumped to 0.60; that was an exceptional situation, but more or less 0.45 has been the resistance if you look at the last few years, right? From this ratio perspective also, can I say that the markets are at a bottom? Absolutely. In my view, the Indian stock market has hit the bottom.
Now, tomorrow, if this war spans out and it becomes World War III—hope it doesn’t—that is a different situation to again evaluate. But with the current ongoing conditions, it looks to me that the Indian market has made a bottom. 500 points here and there, you know what, that is normal volatility. I cannot say, you know, why it has come down to 21,900 or 22,000, right? That I cannot say, but more or less the bottom has been made from a valuations perspective, okay? I’ve showed you two data points; let me show you one more data point here, and this is also a very, very interesting parallel that we need to understand. So, if I take you back to COVID days, 13th March 2020, there is data published here that around 1,600 stocks hit a 52-week low. Okay, at that time. Now, in March 2026, as of 23rd March, around 948 stocks hit a 52-week low. Okay, I’m recording this video on the 1st of April. Right, I’m sure that 948 figure would have gone very high in the last 7 days as the market has corrected even more, right? So, my view is that we are seeing good parallels between what happened in COVID versus what has happened now already—that more than a thousand stocks almost are trading at a 52-week low. And what happens when that happens? Markets almost bottom out, right? A lot of selling has happened already. So, in my view, an Indian stock market allocation of 55 to 60% right now makes sense. Again, I’m not giving you a recommendation that you do that, but that is what my broad framework is.
Risks to the Indian Market
Having said this, there are a couple of risks that you need to be aware of. Number one risk is the FII risk. So, what you note is that around $12 billion of a bloodbath has happened due to FII selling, right? And let me put this in perspective for you in terms of what has happened. So, if I go and show you the data here—data for FII selling—what you note is that the last 3 years (2022, 2024, 2025) saw heavy selling by FIIs. So, FIIs started exiting the Indian stock market from 2022. In 2026, already a lot of selling has happened, right? Now, can this trend continue? It is entirely possible. This is the risk—that FIIs may not come back to the Indian stock market sustainably. What I mean by this is that there has to be heavy buying by FIIs, which is not there in the last 3 to 4 years. Why has the Indian stock market been resilient? Because of the DII flow. Can you see the green charts here, the green bars? Because of huge SIP flows, the markets have not crashed; otherwise, we would have been in a difficult position, right?
If I show you the monthly data, there is an interesting data point for March as to why I think this is another bottom that Indian markets have made. FII selling crossed around 1 lakh 22 thousand crores. This is the highest because if you go back to the last 2-3 years, you wouldn’t find this data point. In October 2024, when the small caps started to melt, at that time FII selling was at its highest at 1 lakh 14,000 crores. You can see on my screen that has been crossed in the month of March. So, this remains a continuous risk for the Indian stock market—that FIIs may continue to sell off, you know, in pockets. It might slow down for a few weeks for now because the heavy selling has been done in March. Overall, this remains a risk in my view.
The second risk that we need to be aware of is the GDP growth and the macro impact. So, a good article that CNBC published here stated that the growth prospect of Indian GDP was around 7.4% before this war started, as of the March 2027 predictions, and the government is acknowledging that this 7.4% is at risk right now. So, macro-wise, there is definitely an impact; we cannot deny it. That risk remains—that we might see some slowdown. But you know what? Markets have already reacted to it, okay? In the month of March, there was a heavy, heavy correction in the Indian stock market. Overall, I’m very, very bullish on the Indian stock market—more bullish than ever, right?—because of the reasons I’ve talked about from a valuations perspective.
Specific Sector Breakdowns in India
Now, Rahul, okay, all of this is understood, we got the context. Now, where do we look to deploy this 55 to 60%? Now, this is where you and me may differ, okay? My point is very, very simple. If I show you this data point that ICICI Direct beautifully put out—good credit, big credit to the ICICI Direct team to do this analysis. Whenever there’s a good analysis I see, I give them a compliment. And if, in fact, you’re liking this video, I request you to do the same: like this video, let me know in the comments. A simple thank you for a content creator or analyst, when we get a simple thank you, it motivates us a lot; I can’t tell you in words, okay?
So now, have a look at this ICICI Direct commentary. Sector-wise, they have produced it, okay? What they’re saying is the Realty sector right now is under consolidation, okay? From September 2024, since when the market started to correct, right, we’re looking at almost an 18-month period here. The Realty sector, Nifty Realty, is down by almost 41%. In my view, this is a good, good opportunity, a good pocket. I’m going to show you some data points, but let me quickly go through these sectors. Infrastructure is around a 10% correction since September 2024—it’s not from the peak, okay, it’s a consolidation phase, which is what ICICI Direct is naming it. The IT sector saw a 28% correction, but I am not very bullish on the IT sector as of now. I don’t think there is a good reversion very, very immediately, but you know, we could differ here, right? Banks saw a 5% correction, but from the top or from the peak, it is much more than 5%. 5% is from September 2024; it still presents a lot of opportunity in my view. Again, I’m going to show you some data points. Likewise, if you look at other sectors here, another one that I’ll pick up is Auto—a 12% correction from September 2024. Very, very good consolidation, very, very good sector.
Now, let me give you three to four sectors where I think there is a good opportunity, a huge opportunity, even if you play at the ETF level or mutual fund level. Again, not a recommendation here, but let me show you some data points. Before that, I haven’t talked about the small-cap, mid-cap, or large-cap. I’m very, very bullish right now on the small-cap sector. Why? I did a very, very detailed post here on my community just a few days back where I talked about why I feel that the small-cap cycle is about to reverse in the next few weeks or so, okay? I’ve gone through a lot of details, did this analysis for my community. If you’re not yet a community member, consider subscribing. I share good analysis, deep analysis, as you can see on my screen, right? About small-caps or, you know, any other market parameters. So, here is the analysis: I’m very, very bullish. Out of this 55 to 60%, I would look at, you know, a 40 to 50% deployment in small-caps right away. It’s likely to look good in the next 2 to 3 years in my view. Again, not a recommendation, but this is where my head is going.
Now, coming to the sectoral view, the first sector that I’m extremely bullish on right now is Bank Nifty. Okay, why do I say that? If you look at the price-to-book ratio of Bank Nifty, it is right now, as of 30th March, around 1.7 price-to-book. Let us look at the historical valuation perspective here from the last 5 years. What you see is the green graph here, which is showing you the PB ratio of Bank Nifty over the last 5 years. And look at the valuations here; we are at the bottom here, which is around 1.71. It has never hit 1.71 if you go back to the last 5 years of data points, okay? Now, could it drop from 1.71 to, let’s say, 1.6 or 1.5 in the short term? Yes, absolutely possible. You cannot deny that 1.71 can go down to 1.6 or 1.5. That’s the risk you take as an equity investor. But right now, if you look at the valuations, they look solid to me in Bank Nifty, okay?
The second sector that you can go and explore is the Real Estate sector. Have a look at Nifty Realty. What’s happening in Nifty Realty? The PE ratio is 30.8; you might find it slightly elevated, okay? But let’s have a look at some data in terms of the valuations. The pink line is showing you the PE ratio of the Nifty Realty sector, and if you go back to July 2021—okay, since then, if you look at the data point here, which is almost 4-5 years of data points—the PE ratio right now is at the bottom at 30.80, okay? The lowest it dropped to was somewhere here around 34.73 back in March 2023, right? One could argue that the Real Estate sector has been in a boom in the last few years post-COVID. Agreed. And it’s a very cyclical sector, but right now, the valuations look very, very good. There is a potential that this might drop further; that you cannot deny, okay? Because the Real Estate sector is seeing some slowdown; there is no doubt about it. But would it be a bottom right now? I wouldn’t say that it’s a bottom. But from a valuation perspective, it looks attractive. It’s not that it has gone to crazy valuations, right?
The third sector that you can go and explore is the Auto sector. Look at Nifty Auto. The PE ratio is at around 28.1, and if I show you the last few years’ data points here—the green line that you see here, okay?—this is the PE ratio back in the January 2022 timeframe. The PE was huge at 64, you know, I mean 70, 90, 80. It then dropped to around here if you look at this data point in April 2025, around 19.69, okay? Auto sales were struggling, right? But after the GST boom or the GST cut that has happened in the auto sector, the earnings have improved, the sales have improved, right? Of course, the valuations have gone higher, but it’s now come down to almost around 28. A good correction, okay? Because here it had gone to around 34 back in February 2026 due to the war conflict. It has come down to almost around 28.10. And the structural tailwinds for the auto sector do exist as of now, right? It’s a long-term sector; of course, it comes with cyclicity. Right now, the valuations look very, very good to me, so this is another sector that I would go and explore and look at deploying around 55 to 60% of my money into the Indian stock market. Now, you might have a different opinion in terms of the sector, and if you feel confident, there are a lot of good companies as well that you can go and do some research about. Here, I’ve talked about mainly the sector level, ETF level, or mutual fund level. Hope you found this analysis useful.
The Commodities: Gold and Silver Allocations
With that, let me go to my second asset class that looks very, very interesting to me. The second asset class is Gold. Around an 8 to 10% allocation definitely I would look to do in gold. Why? Have a look at gold’s chart. What do we see here? Gold has done a correction of around 13.44% when I’m recording this video. The bottom was somewhere here around 4,400. Okay, this is in dollars, okay? Now, if I talk about this gold correction, why did this correction happen? A couple of reasons. Number one, of course, you know, when the oil prices went up, the fear of inflation kicked in, and the US dollar got really, really strong in the last few days, right? And when that happens, gold takes a hit. And of course, profit booking also happened because gold had seen massive rallies, okay? So, that pullback is very, very natural. The second reason was that some of the central banks started to sell gold right due to the West Asia war—for example, Turkey, right? They looked at the data here and analyzed this and said that, you know what, they’ve been buying heavily, but due to the Iran war, they started to sell. They sold around 57 tons of gold in the last few days, right? So, some selling has happened by the central banks
But overall, if you ask me, what is the trend for gold? So, I did this podcast with Motilal Oswal’s Executive Director, Mr. Kishore Narne—a very, very interesting podcast. You must go and watch this podcast; there’s a lot that he talked about. De-dollarization is a structural trend; it is not a short-term thing, and it might take, let’s say, up to 2028, 2029, or 2030 for gold to still continue to go further. Again, I’m not saying that this will happen, but during this journey, gold is likely to see dips like what we saw just now, okay? Fears will kick in, some profit booking will happen, some other macros will take an impact, and that’s why gold will see these dips and things like that. And in fact, in my recent podcast with him, which was in Hindi, he talked about seeing gold taking huge support at around 1 lakh 20,000. Again, it’s his view, and why he took that view he’s explained in a rational manner. Also, subscribe to my channel. There are three YouTube channels right now: one is the Hindi channel, the English channel, and the third one is the podcast channel, right? Please go and subscribe to all three; you are going to get a good perspective and timely updates from industry experts and some data-backed analysis. You’re not going to find that content anywhere else. So, request you to go and subscribe to all three channels so that you get the notifications, right? So, coming back to gold, structurally I’m definitely bullish, but here is what I would say about gold: volatility may be there, right? Therefore, look at the SIP mode because you cannot really look at gold from a price fluctuation perspective in terms of a lot of valuation parameters, etc. There’s no PE ratio, there’s no PB ratio for gold. There is a lot of volatility, okay? SIP, in my view, works very, very well when you don’t really see what’s going to happen next because of no valuation parameters, okay? So in gold, my SIPs remain intact; I started these SIPs back in December. Continue to do that weekly SIP—have talked about that on my channel a lot. Again, not a recommendation, not an influence here, but I’m simply sharing with you what I’m seeing, you know, in terms of the veterans saying stuff, and I’m simply sharing the data points that look very, very interesting to me. That’s on gold.
The third asset class is Silver. Let me give you one to two minutes of commentary on silver as well. Now, when it comes to silver, around a 5 to 8% allocation does make sense, but again, you have to be really, really cautious and you need to be really okay with volatility. Here is what I would say about silver, okay? I remember creating my first video on silver when silver was around $35, okay? A silver bull run had just got started, and that was a very, very good time. I talked about a lot of the demand-supply gap, etc. Okay, a lot of people said that, you know what, that was a good video at that time. When silver crossed almost 110 and 112, I started saying that, you know what, there’s a lot of speculation in silver, this is a bad time in silver, and actually, silver crashed from that time onwards. And at that time, I said you know what, you have to look at one important parameter, which is the 200-day moving average. A lot of people in the comments mocked me; they said silver is not coming to the 200-day moving average. Guess what? It has almost got closer. Can you see here? March, 23rd of March 2026, it was almost about to touch the 200-day moving average. So, the point is that do not mock anybody when they’re showing you some data points. Of course, nobody knows the future. Everybody’s trying to do some analysis and share it with you. Agree or disagree is up to you, but at least don’t mock anybody; that’s what I would say.
Now, coming back to silver, if I talk about what’s happening right now… So, let me present to you some data points. Here is some interesting data for you about silver. There was some data collected from analysts, right? The consensus silver valuation came out to be around $81, okay, where people said that, you know what, we agree silver valuation should be around $81, okay? The bearish case was around $44, and the bullish case was $309. Right now, these data points are just predictions or forecasts; this does not really tell you the accurate future, right? But the consensus was around $81. But overall, if you look at silver from a positive drivers’ perspective, the structural growth of, you know, industrial demand—it’s still there, it’s not that it has gone away, okay? Yes, of course, there is talk about replacing silver or doing a little less coating or slightly thinner coatings on, let’s say, solar panels, etc. But structurally, it still remains a good asset, okay? However, the problem is the macro pressure—the strong dollar that we have seen in the last few days, okay? And of course, the speculation. The biggest problem with silver is the speculation, okay? If you look at the chart, when silver crossed $80 or $90, that’s where the speculation started to come in. Right now, one could argue that the speculation is limited, but silver remains a very, very volatile asset—not for everybody—and it’s one of those assets where it’s opportunistic behavior. You get in there, make some profit, and quickly exit. It’s not like you sit on it and wait for 2030, etc. That is not that type of asset. So again, depending on your risk appetite, you will have to look at silver. If you don’t like volatility, stay away from silver; that’s what I would say, right?
US Stock Market Allocation
Let’s go to now the US stock market, and let me give you some summary on that as well. Now, when it comes to the US stock market, a good correction has happened in the US stock market, right? So therefore, you know, there is an opportunity here. It really depends on what type of investor you are, right? Whether you can select a specific stock in the US stock market—whether you have that capability or the skills—and second is whether you want to trade at the index level. That is up to you; that is your style. But definitely, it makes sense to look at some allocation to the US stock market. 18 to 20% wouldn’t be a bad idea. Some correction has happened. Of course, there are a lot of risks with the US stock market. For example, Trump brings a lot of uncertainty. There’s a question about the AI theme, you know, valuations, etc., right? Those questions are still there. The US has high debt; those risks always remain with us, but the market has been doing fantastically well in the last couple of years.
If you look at the US stock market, if you look at the last 3 months, a lot of companies have corrected. Index-wise, also, there is a good correction. For example, if you look at NDX, which is Nasdaq 100, the last 3 months’ correction has been around 9.85%. Yesterday it really rallied 3.43% on the news that Trump is saying that, you know what, we’re going to exit this war—whether Iran really opens the Hormuz or not, you know, irrespective, we’re going to exit it. And on that news, a 3.43% gain yesterday was seen in Nasdaq 100. But overall, if you look at 3 months, there is a lot of damage here already done. Look at companies like Google, down 12.86%; Microsoft, 26.36% down. None of these are recommendations, by the way. You really need to know exactly which company is presenting you an opportunity from a valuation perspective. Companies like Meta are down by 19.46%; Nvidia is down by 11.93%. So, really, you have to look at whether you are bullish on the AI theme or not, right? And if you are not sure about any of these companies, then look at, you know, indexes like NDX or S&P or whatever makes sense. But there’s definitely a good chance of allocation here.
Let me talk about NDX or Nasdaq 100 for a minute. Let me show you some data points here. If you look at this yellow line here, this is the moving day average—the 200-day moving average. And here it has dropped below the 200-day moving average when I’m recording this video. If you look at here, back in, let’s say, April or May 2025 when the tariff news hit the world, at that time also it dropped, but from that time onwards it recovered beautifully. If I come back here, go back to, let’s say, back in here in almost July ’22 time period, it dropped below the 200-day moving average and remained there for a few months. It’s not that it immediately raised back up to some good levels. But you know, history is telling us that a 200-day moving average drop makes a good correction, makes a good case here, okay? That is on NDX. If I talk about the valuations, for example, if I talk about the PE ratio of Nasdaq 100, it has seen some pullback to around 33.61; the highest has been around 38.16. So, it has seen some correction. But if you look at the mean—if you go back to the last few years of data—the mean is at around 24. So, from that valuation perspective, it’s still very, very high.
Final Asset Breakdown and Execution
So, I’ve shared a lot of data points around the US stock market here in a very, very quick two to three-minute summary. Again, it is up to you what you want to do. But from an allocation perspective, one thing I would say: don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Don’t just go heavy on the Indian stock market or the US stock market or gold or silver. Look at the asset allocation; that is the basic principle of investing. That’s what I would say.
Also, the remaining money I would leave in a liquid fund—let’s say 8 to 10% or whatever remains—because you never know where the opportunities might come in the next few days or weeks. But in this video, I’ve tried to give you a summary. None of this is a recommendation. Hopefully, the data point itself tells you a lot about where the markets might head to, right? And if you liked that, I request you to hit the like button. Let me know in the comments—a simple thank youLet me know in the comments if you have any questions; would love to answer that. Also, I’m going to see you in my next video. Until then, keep rocking!
